Tens of thousands of children currently in their final year of primary school could face periods of unemployment after leaving education unless action is taken to improve standards and better prepare young people for the world of work, according to a new report.
Research published by the think tank the Centre for Social Justice estimates that as many as 40,000 pupils currently in Year 6 are on course to spend at least a year not in employment, education or training (NEET) between the ages of 16 and 24.
The warning comes against a backdrop of growing concern over the number of young people disengaged from both work and education.
Recent official figures show that more than one million people aged 16 to 24 are currently classified as NEET across the UK, while youth unemployment remains significantly higher than levels seen before the Covid-19 pandemic.
The report argues that a combination of poor educational outcomes, persistent absenteeism and a lack of focus on vocational and technical pathways is leaving many young people ill-equipped for employment.
According to the analysis, around one in five children leave primary school without meeting the expected standard in reading. Researchers say this early educational disadvantage can have long-term consequences, affecting attainment throughout secondary education and reducing future employment prospects.
The report also highlights the continuing impact of school attendance problems. Government statistics show the overall absence rate in schools during the 2024-25 academic year stood at 6.8 per cent. While this was an improvement on the previous year’s figure of 7.2 per cent, it remains substantially higher than pre-pandemic levels, which were typically below five per cent.
Persistent absence also remains elevated. More than 18 per cent of pupils missed at least 10 per cent of their lessons during the year. Before the pandemic, the equivalent figure was generally below 11 per cent.
Researchers found that pupils who are persistently absent are almost four times more likely to become NEET at the age of 16 than those with strong attendance records.
The findings will be presented to Alan Milburn, who has been tasked by the Government with examining rising levels of economic inactivity among young people.
In an interim review published earlier this year, Mr Milburn questioned whether expectations for primary school attainment were sufficiently ambitious.
He noted that government targets have historically aimed for around 75 per cent of pupils to leave primary school with age-appropriate literacy and numeracy skills, arguing that this effectively accepts that a significant minority of children will fall behind before they even reach secondary education.
The CSJ is calling for reforms designed to improve employment outcomes, including greater emphasis on technical education, stronger links between schools and employers, and additional support for pupils who may not choose the traditional university route.
Dan Lilley, a researcher at the think tank, said the education system should place greater value on vocational pathways and ensure that all young people are equipped with the skills needed to succeed in the labour market.
The Government has acknowledged the scale of the challenge. A spokesman said too many young people were being left without access to work, education or training opportunities and that ministers were committed to improving outcomes.
The report adds to growing concerns about the long-term impact of educational disruption, attendance problems and skills shortages on the UK’s future workforce, with researchers warning that early intervention will be crucial if thousands of young people are to avoid drifting into unemployment in the years ahead.
